Rockstar and Take-Two today finally confirmed Max Payne 3 for release in March 2012 (which means it's still a part of the current fiscal year). This is good news for Take-Two's stock, but it's also encouraging for fans anticipating GTA V next year after April. Analysts believe Max Payne 3 should do well, and according to Sterne Agee's Arvind Bhatia, it's going to have to since it may require sales of about 4 million units to break even.
"Life-to-date, the Max Payne franchise has sold through 7M units between the two prior versions -- Max Payne and Max Payne 2. We think the latest iteration, Max Payne 3, has greater potential for success than either of the two prior versions," noted Bhatia.
He then added, "Although the break-even unit level for Max Payne 3 is likely high -- probably in the 4M units range -- due to its long development time, we think the title is highly anticipated and has potential for upside surprise."
Bhatia generated a table (see below) which outlines his hypothetical profitability model for Max Payne 3 at higher unit levels.